Every year, millions of basketball fans fill out brackets for the Division I Men’s College Basketball Tournament hoping to predict the team that will win it all. The Microsoft Business Applications Applied AI group has joined in on the fun, leveraging AI to help guide our bracket picks.

So far, we’ve had a pretty good run. Out of the 17 million brackets submitted for the 2022 ESPN Men’s Tournament Challenge, the Microsoft Business Applications Applied AI group’s bracket is ranked 21st on the leaderboard, which after four rounds (semifinal stage) is more accurate than 99.9997 percent of all brackets submitted at the beginning of the competition.

In this post, I’ll discuss how we built this bracket and explain how we use similar techniques to power AI capabilities in Microsoft Dynamics 365 applications. Why does this matter? Because businesses want to make better decisions and achieve better outcomes, andas the accuracy of our tournament predictions help showturning to AI to provide those insights can deliver impressive outcomes.

How we build our tournament AI model

Since readers are probably more interested in the construction of our bracket, let’s start with that (for business-minded readers, you can skip to the next section). We’ve previously explained how to build better brackets, and we had deeper dives providing details of our models. To summarize, we take over 10 years of historical data for teams and analyze many factors, including:

• Regular season and tournament outcomes.
• Current player composition, excluding injured team members unavailable for the tournament.
• Historical competitive success of the head coaches coaching this year’s teams.
• Success away from home and in neutral sites, which is where all tournament games happen for the men.
• Historical analyses of seeds and conference successes.

With these factors, we created a model which determined that 5th seeded Houston was dramatically underrated at that position and we were thus able to correctly predict their upset wins over 4-seed Illinois and 1-seed Arizona and that 8th seeded North Carolina would upset 1-seed Baylor and 4-seed UCLA. The model understood team strengths well enough that by the quarterfinals, each of the four teams we predicted to make the semifinals was the stronger remaining seeded team in the four contests. And fortunately for us, all four teams delivered to ensure we’d have a perfect semifinal bracket going into this weekend.

Solving business problems with AI

Businesses have many questions they need answers to today. For example, what’s the likelihood that a customer will churn? What’s the predicted lifetime value of a customer? What products should be recommended to a customer? Will I have enough supply of a given product on the shelf? Accurately answering these questions leads to better outcomes, as customers are retained, loyalty programs are designed to reward your best customers, and customers see the products that are most relevant to them available on the shelf. We have built easy-to-use, out-of-box AI models that are trained on your data so you can get the predictions optimized for your business to answer these questions.

These models use the same concepts that we used to create our bracket, as the propensity of a business outcome can be modeled similarly to that of a sports outcome. Take, for instance, the classical Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) model for predicting churn. 

• For recency, in the basketball model we look at streaks and “last 10” performance, while in business churn, we look at the recent purchase history of a customer. 
• For frequency, we might analyze the number of wins a team has for basketball, while analogously we look at the quantity of purchases from a customer for our business applications models. 
• Finally, for monetary, this would be the point differential in basketball and quantity of spend in our churn model.

This is only a subset of all features we analyzed to give you an idea of our approach.

Beside the questions above, there are a lot of other questions that businesses are asking in every domain. For example, what are customers saying about our product? How do we identify business entities in text? How do we find the most relevant news articles about suppliers? How do we analyze your processes and automatically label the activities that are being done to identify bottlenecks and suggest improvements? We have AI capabilities to help answer these questions available in our Dynamics 365 product family today.

Of course, AI models need not be fully self-service as human intuition and guidance can be included when desired. This is why we have spent time discussing the importance of explain-ability of models in a recent post. People can take AI and use it as a guide to improve decision-making both in creating a bracket as well as solving your business problems. Namely, our AI models explain the insights so that you can add in your own intuition when planning your next marketing campaign or building your next material requirements plan.

Keeping pace on and off the court

The dynamic nature of our models can be seen with the tournament, too, where we incorporated the early results from additional post-season college tournaments to adjust the modeled strengths of conferences before main bracket play beganin 2022, this meant observing a stronger Atlantic Coast Conference based on Virginia upsetting Mississippi State and Wake Forest winning in outcomes from another tournament’s first round. Such a signal increased the model’s confidence in this conference, leading it to correctly pick a Duke versus North Carolina semifinal and a quarterfinal run for Miami.

In business, the only constant is change. How do you pivot and adjust to the latest disruptions in your supply chain? How would you route customer support calls to the best agents based on real-time staffing changes and that day’s routing behavior? We’re running a full court press in solving these types of problems, so if you want to learn more about how AI can help your business, try our line of business applications, visit our Insights blog, and come apply to the many AI-powered jobs we have for Dynamics 365.

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Organizations face new challenges every day. Priorities change, markets shift, opportunities emergethe pace isn’t slowing down. As your competitors transform their business models and customer expectations evolve, your future depends on how well you can empower your teams to adapt, innovate, and make a positive impact every day. You need to be ready for disruption, to embrace constant change, and, most of all, be fast on your feet.

Building a more agile future

That’s why we’re excited to invite you to the Microsoft Business Applications Launch Event on April 6, 2022. Register now for your first look at hundreds of new features, enhancements, and innovations to transform your business into a more agile, customer-centric organization.

Catch all the latest advancements across Microsoft Dynamics 365 being unveiled, including:

• More collaborative content creation, improved authoring efficiency, and advanced personalization using Dynamics 365 Marketing.
• Ambient and actionable business data, a single workspace in Sales Hub, and AI-guided live feedback with Dynamics 365 Sales.
• Simplified setup with guided, task-based experiences and inbox enhancements for rapid issue resolution using Dynamics 365 Customer Service.
• Subscription billing and intelligent automation around invoicing, ledger settlements, and year-end close services in Dynamics 365 Finance.

And that’s just the start. You’ll also learn how new features across Microsoft business applications are already helping our customers navigate change and seize opportunities. You’ll hear from Charles Lamanna, Microsoft Corporate Vice President of Business Applications and Platform, about how your business can innovate by modernizing processes and uncovering game-changing insights. Then listen in as senior Microsoft engineers and experts behind the technology guide you through the latest advancements in Dynamics 365 and Microsoft Power Platform 2022 release wave 1 and how they’ll help you:

• Adapt quickly to change as new business priorities, market conditions, and customer opportunities emerge.
• Innovate everywhere by solving problems with solutions that ease collaboration and work seamlessly together.
• Deliver more value to your customers in less time by quickly adopting or enhancing solutions that accelerate results.
• Create more memorable customer experiences by modernizing your processes and uncovering insights into your supply chain.

Real-life innovation

Your inside look at business applications goes even more in-depth with demonstrations of real-life customer scenarios, led by the experts who know Dynamics 365 and Microsoft Power Platform inside and out. See new capabilities in actionand learn what’s possiblefor organizations big and small, across every industry. You’ll be the first to find out how new features are aligned with customer needs to help solve pain points across organizations, ease everyone’s workload, and take on today’s toughest business challenges.

Fresh insights

Innovation in AI, mixed reality, and industry solutions is enabling a new generation of agile organizations. Understand the why and how behind the trends with insights and best practices from industry leaders on how to accelerate results. Have questions for the experts? You’ll have a chance to ask them during the live Q&A chat. You don’t want to miss this digital launch event packed full of ways to help you adapt fast, collaborate with ease, innovate together, and make a positive impact. We hope to see you there. 

The post See what’s new for Dynamics 365 at the Microsoft Business Applications Launch Event appeared first on Microsoft Dynamics 365 Blog.